Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
