Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
